“Turtle Diagram” as a Tool of Forecasting in the Management of Production Risk in Agriculture – Literature Review

¹Faculty of Economy and Agribusiness, Agricultural University of Tirana, Tirana – Albania

²Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University “Ukshin Hoti”, Prizeren, Kosovo

*Correspondingauthor Arif Murrja; E-mail: amurrja@ubt.edu.al

 Download PDF Full-text

Abstract

The “turtle diagram” is a well-known instrument in the theory of auditing and risk management. We will adapt this ISO-9001/2015 instrument to use it in forecasting production in agriculture, as one of the risk management tools in agricultural businesses. The sources of risks in agricultural businesses are numerous. To manage these resources in risk theory know several tools. These tools are: (i) Information; (ii) Forecast; (iii) Diversification; (iv) Excess capacity and reserves in inputs and output; (v) Lease agreements; (vi) Orders and contracts; (vii) Institutional instruments; (viii) Insurance; and(ix) Government.
The paper will focus on the “forecasting tool” in agricultural manufacturing businesses. This tool will be designed according to the “turtle diagram”. This design visually combines factors, needs and outcome (production).

Keywords: diagram, risk, output, tool, specific, forecast.